Administrator wrote:

This topic was split from the <A HREF="http://www.urbanstl.com/viewtopic.php?t=8">Ely Walker Lofts</A> thread.



About the Border's, I talked with Jim CLoar at the breakfast thing, and he said the talks are still going on with the Border's people, it is not a done deal yet. I also asked him about grocery, he said there has been some small talks but nothing has actually taken place for a downtown Dierberg's/Schnucks chain.

a schnuck's and a borders are the last things downtown needs. it would turn washington avenue into a little suburban enclave with nicer buildings. what we need are more independent businesses to fill the same gaps - like the city grocer. who would chose a schnuck's over that? and what will happen to it if a schnuck's does come in? what downtown needs is to develop its own character and not sell out to all the megachains.

nicolankford wrote:a schnuck's and a borders are the last things downtown needs. it would turn washington avenue into a little suburban enclave with nicer buildings. what we need are more independent businesses to fill the same gaps - like the city grocer. who would chose a schnuck's over that? and what will happen to it if a schnuck's does come in? what downtown needs is to develop its own character and not sell out to all the megachains.

Agree and disagree. I am not a fan of the Schnucks but would love to see a Borders come in. Especially if it is like a 2-story space with views of the streetscape.

Xing wrote:True, true. I can honestly tell you, Downtown St. Louis is already more independent than most places. There are less big chains there, than there seem to be in other cities.

True indeed, I was in Chicago last week and was simply shocked that there was a Starbucks on literally every street by the Water Tower.

Maybe I'm wrong but I think it'd give downtown some legitimacy to have a Borders and Schnucks/Dierburgs downtown. Independant stores are great but usually just don't draw the critical mass of people needed (with a few exceptions) to create real traffic. Plus, it'd definitely go a long way to ensure that those considering living downtown wouldn't go elsewhere because of 'convenience' factors. I don't know about you all but I couldn't afford to shop at city grocers for everything I need. No matter how urban minded we'd like to be, downtown needs to be like a snowball rolling downhill gaining speed, size, and momentum. I feel some big box retailers would represent huge portions of that snowball.

SoulardD wrote:Maybe I'm wrong but I think it'd give downtown some legitimacy to have a Borders and Schnucks/Dierburgs downtown. Independant stores are great but usually just don't draw the critical mass of people needed (with a few exceptions) to create real traffic. Plus, it'd definitely go a long way to ensure that those considering living downtown wouldn't go elsewhere because of 'convenience' factors. I don't know about you all but I couldn't afford to shop at city grocers for everything I need. No matter how urban minded we'd like to be, downtown needs to be like a snowball rolling downhill gaining speed, size, and momentum. I feel some big box retailers would represent huge portions of that snowball.

I'm not sure what it is about the grocery store thing, but I really don't think we need a big box grocer downtown yet. I don't think we have the population to support one, and I don't think we will for awhile.



As an example, Chicago has about 3 million people living in the city proper. That doesn't count the number of tourists that come through the city either. How many grocery stores do they have? The answer is 3. One of them is a Whole Foods, which I would not exactly consider a full grocery store, but more a larger version of City Grocers.



I think a couple of well placed small grocery stores would be just fine for downtown for the next couple of years. Maybe by then we'll have a larger population and we can support a bigger grocery store.



As for Borders, I'd take it.

Just to clarify HonestBusinesMan:



Chicago has 3 million people in the city limits - not downtown area. I would guess the downtown area (including just north, west, and south of the loop), houses at most about 300,000 people. There are certainly more than 3 big-box grocery stores in that location, but probably less than 10. There are also guite a few specialty grocery stores in that area.



I too agree that downtown STL still does not have the mass to support a chain grocery, and we are 5-10 years away from having one. However, I do believe downtown is closer to pulling in big-box retailers such as Borders, Old Navy, etc...

I too agree that downtown STL still does not have the mass to support a chain grocery, and we are 5-10 years away from having one. However, I do believe downtown is closer to pulling in big-box retailers such as Borders, Old Navy, etc...

OK, so downtown may not have the population to support a big grocery store.

But groceries are things people need on a daily basis... neccesities. Books and coffee, despite what some might say, are not. Does that mean downtown cannot support a Borders? What about and Old Navy? Is downtown really closer (and what do you mean by closer?) to having some national chains?

I think our downtown faces an additional barrier to retail development in being too far east on the east-west continuum of the Metro Area. While I'm not sure of how many people from the St. Clair and Madison Counties would be willing to cross the bridge (either the Poplar or the Eads) to frequent a downtown chain retailer, an Illinois contingent would surely at this point be necessary for downtown retail development.



Our downtown will simply not attract people from too far away to patronize its chain stores. St. Louis Centre was a lesson to everyone that downtown retail is a difficult venture without sufficient density. And population density is not necessarly the only measure for retail success indicators--income density is far more important.



For example:



Within a one mile radius of the intersection of Tucker and Market, there are 9,944 people, with a population density of 3,077 people per square mile (Source). Household income per square mile stands at $52,399,535.



When you expand to a three mile radius, the population jumps to 93,141, and the density increases slightly to 3,248 per square mile--but the aggregate income per square mile falls to $42,998,394. This is probably because now you're including a somewhat more impoverished population of the North Side and Central Corridor to the figures.



However, we have to ask ourselves, will these people at the end of the radius even travel downtown to shop? Might they already have their own neighborhood stores? And, if they do not, won't this affect what kinds of stores go in to downtown? What I mean is that, if downtown has an insufficient population in and of itself to support a retail establishment (note the fairly small population within a 1 mile radius of downtown), won't downtown stores that do decide to locate there do so to serve whatever market is consistently patronizing their businesses? Or better yet, why not locate in a "better radius"--that is, one with higher aggregate income per square mile.



Let's take a look at the intersection of Hampton and Chippewa now to see if a Best Buy, Borders or other chain retailer would be better off locating in this already popular location instead.



At a one mile radius around the intersection of Hampton and Chippewa, we have 26,136 people with a density of 8,456 people per square mile. While most of us would consider downtown more "urban" than St. Louis Hills, the urban densities are elswhere in the city due to decentralizaton. The one-mile income figure is now $206,298,095! This number is significantly higher than downtown's. While downtown's demographics are certainly more in flux (toward a more well-off and dense population), this is a daunting gap to fill.



Now let's move out to a three mile radius:

Population: 174,146

Density: 6,278

Income: $125,836,830



Density takes a hit from the fact that the radius now includes less dense suburban municipalities to the southwest of St. Louis. Income takes a hit from the inclusion of south-central and parts of southeast City. Regardless, the income figure towers above the three mile radius around Tucker and Market.



So why would a business choose downtown over Chippewa/Hampton area? Well, I suppose there's plenty of available space and an untapped market that's bound to grow. However, the "safe" markets, even within the city, are those farther west in the area.



Finally, let's look at the income around the I-64/-170 interchange. The results here show the importance of "accessibility" or highway access. In a one mile radius around the intersection, population is only at 11,235 (comparable to downtown) and the income at $150,713,653 (significantly less than St. Louis Hills). The density is 4,028--between downtown and St. Louis Hills.



The three mile radius shows a population of 113,064, density of 3,889 per square mile, and income of $134,210,816. This location is considered prime location for retailers. We have the St. Louis Galleria, Brentwood Square, the Boulevard, and numerous other connected shopping centers all within a mile of the intersection. The lesson here is that this interchange is highly traversed and is seen as a central location--meaning that it is near the population center of the Metro Area. Note that within a five mile radius of I-170 and I-64, there are 307,884 people. This location is not necessarily one of complete density in its immediate surroundings.



It's all about being farther west where more of the population is and having access from both sides of the Metro Area, east and west. Certainly many automobile-owning city residents frequent the Galleria just as often as Town and Countrians might (or maybe they go to the more upscale Plaza Frontenac?). With this in mind, downtown's got a while to go before it can support a chain. Its population base supports neighborhood establishments, but not so much regional retail. Yes, downtown gets an influx of around 80 or 90,000 workers a day, but these groups obviously do not support downtown retail after 5 p.m. or poor St. Louis Centre wouldn't be in the position it is today.



I do think there is something to be said of the "novelty" of having a chain downtown--whether we're talking Borders or Best Buy or Old Navy. People might see a retailer's decision to move downtown as a sign that downtown is viable, thus catalyzing further residential and business growth. That's the hope anyway.



Still, the numbers and the geographic location of downtown next to the Mighty Psychological Barrier (the Mississippi), combined with persisting (and unfounded) views of downtown as dangerous, work together to make it more of a retailer's risk than it should be.

People's households within a 1 mile radius of downtown have a average income of $52,399,535 per year! Fifty-Two Million Three Hundred Ninety-Nine Thousand Five Hundred and Thirty-Five dollars! That should be able to support Rodeo Drive! Oh, you're taking the entire square mile's income... that makes more sense.



Thanks for providing a detailed analysis of population, income, and geography... very impressive. So when will DT become a viable shopping destination again? Ever? Recently the Post-Dispatch ran a front page story about how the next big building boom ala St. Charles will be in Illinois. Will this do anything to improve DT's shopping? What about the poor developers pouring money into the bottle district...are they doomed to be a grander St. Louis Centre? Can suburbanites lose thier, "Let's build farther west!" mentality?



I guess those questions deserve thier own topic. How bout this... is the mayor talking crazy when he says a borders might go into the Ely Walker?

SoulardD wrote:People's households within a 1 mile radius of downtown have a average income of $52,399,535 per year! Fifty-Two Million Three Hundred Ninety-Nine Thousand Five Hundred and Thirty-Five dollars! That should be able to support Rodeo Drive! Oh, you're taking the entire square mile's income... that makes more sense.



Thanks for providing a detailed analysis of population, income, and geography... very impressive. So when will DT become a viable shopping destination again? Ever? Recently the Post-Dispatch ran a front page story about how the next big building boom ala St. Charles will be in Illinois. Will this do anything to improve DT's shopping? What about the poor developers pouring money into the bottle district...are they doomed to be a grander St. Louis Centre? Can suburbanites lose thier, "Let's build farther west!" mentality?



I guess those questions deserve thier own topic. How bout this... is the mayor talking crazy when he says a borders might go into the Ely Walker?

When will downtown become a viable shopping destination?

Well, I'm no authority on this topic. I just took some public figures and put my own spin to them. Still, if you're asking, I would have to optimistically say that it is becoming ever more viable--if not by numbers, then by image. As we have heard, even urban planners and officials, such an Neal Peirce, are beginning to see downtown as an engine with a lot of steam right now. Even if the numbers are being ratcheted upwards by Slay and Downtown Now! as far as housing and employment growth/stability, this is good for the image of the city. If the image is there, often investment follows. A Borders opened downtown within the next five, possibly ten years would surely be a speculative venture. City officials would push for it not as a guaranteed capitalization on a growing population (in the Loft District, at least), but rather a long term investment that would catalyze other retail ventures. Assuming a retailer were willing to take the risks of developing downtown when, as of 2000, the numbers really aren't there, then downtown could see some rather rapid development.



Some might even say that downtown does not need chain stores at this point. Going for smaller businesses that cater to the relatively small, but dense urban neighborhood that downtown is might be more fruitful. Still, a Borders downtown would surely be a sign of confidence in downtown investment as well as a neighborhood anchor.



Will Downtown ever be what it once was--the be-all, end-all mecca of retailers? Almost definitely not. Will it become a bustling neighborhood with numerous retail options and perhaps catch some regional attention for its revival and its urban appeal? <Shakes Magic Eight Ball> Signs point to yes.



About the Illinois question, I did do a research project on St. Louis Centre last semester, and while I finished it at about 4 a.m. (it was due at 8 a.m.), it does actually contain some insights. The Centre's original owners believed that the Centre would be supported primarily by City residents and downtown office workers. It was believed that 40 percent of shoppers would be downtown office workers, 30 percent tourists and 30 percent regional shoppers. Specifically stated after this prediction of 30 percent Metro Area shoppers was that a substantial portion would be from Illinois, especially with the completion of the Metrolink, or the City itself.



Now, I'm not sure if the Centre's owners ever attempted to survey its clientele to find out where they were coming from, but, obviously, the Illinois population was always there and the Centre still failed. The Illinois residents that could most readily reach the Centre were East St. Louisans--typically not the most affluent bunch. They could take the Metrolink in. Otherwise, I doubt many from Illinois past East St. Louis would travel downtown--by car or Metrolink--when they have their own neighborhood shopping centers as well.



So will Illinoisans help keep downtown afloat now that sprawl is headed eastward? I suspect that only regional attractions will see the benefit of the balance, since the population shift could not be that massive. After all, St. Charles County is still growing rapidly in a Metro Area where overall population growth is relatively stagnant. Thus, the Metro East "boom" probably looks more impressive than it really is. Even if I'm wrong about that, I think that will only mean the beginning of strip shopping centers in areas of the Metro East that don't already have them, not a gravitation towards downtown. That might seem to contradict what I have previously stated about the seeming importance of a "central" location--but there is something about the river that provides a psychological barrier between Missourians and Illinoisans. Perhaps it's the same phenomena as an interstate's causing psychological disconnect between neighborhoods on either side. I know there's a lot more to the psychology of these things, as well as the politics of interstates, but the divide is there nevertheless.



If somehow one could move our Metro Area ten miles to the west, or "erase" the river, I think an East Side boom would mean more success for downtown's retail establishments. However, a downtown Borders would probably be a destination for primarily downtown and City residents (as well as nearly everyone on this message board)--not those from Illinois.



As for the Bottle District, I would imagine any developer/retailer/restauranteer who has already committed to this project knows that there's an inherent risk. I think they're banking on the novelty and groundbreaking design of the district to attract a regional base. Hopefully, it will do so. St. Louis Centre, though, was seen as a major breakthrough for its time as well. It was the largest "enclosed shopping mall" in the country by its own account, and it served as a connector of downtown's two remaining large department stores. Even its exterior design was heralded as innovative. Boosters of the Centre noted its contrast with the surrounding architecture as a sign of St. Louis's progression from an old, brick town to a shiny, white modern metropolis. Of course, that was in 1985--almost the pinnacle of St. Louis's physical and psychological decline (please excuse the oxymoron).



The Bottle District involves residential though, and a lot of it, at a time when real estate is much hotter in the City. Plus, if Old North St. Louis gains momentum, the two projects, though still spatially isolated, could signal a rebirth of the Near North Side that will have similar catalyzing effects as a downtown Borders. The Bottle District is arriving at a time of confidence that is backed by investment. So its potential failure is diminished, though not implausible.



I have heard it said many times, including by Cristina Rotter, the St. Louis Centre mall manager, that it simply "wasn't [the St. Louis Centre's] time." I believe she was correct. How many of us today would be cautiously optimistic about the St. Louis Centre being announced today? Let go of what you know has happened to the Centre as of today and imagine that it had never been built when it was. Now imagine a developer announcing the St. Louis Centre in October 2005. I'm sure some of us would argue about design issues and the razing of the buildings that it took to construct it (as well as the number it did on the Dillards facade). I'm sure there'd be some people who say that downtown could not support a regional mall. By and large though, I'll bet most of us would secretly welcome the investment and expect it to work with today's changing demographics. And it very could be more successful today without the stigma attached to it, with more focus on street level retail, and with more elcectic, neighborhood-based stores.



Anyway, my point is that the Bottle District is not bound to fail. But it's not destined for success either. It's a delicate game of image/perception (a marketing aspect) as well as numbers that hopefully will be played right.



Finally, will suburbanites yank the westward-ho! mentality? Well, apparently from trends that are being reported fairly often, the westward movement is continuing on to Lincoln and Warren Counties. Sprawl isn't only westward (or eastward) either. Jefferson County is growing quickly also. At best, I think cities and inner ring suburbs can hope to stabilize population loss and improve their images to prepare for a more substantial move back into the city. Sprawl in every which direction not only harms the vitality and viability of downtown St. Louis--already in a somewhat precarious position--but also other employment and entertainment hubs centered in the County (Clayton, Westport?). So I guess we'll have to wait until 2010 to know the true extent of the movement "back to the cities" and inner ring suburbs.

I asked Mayor Slay today about Borders and the likelihood of another grocery store downtown. Here's his response:



"Most speculation about a downtown Borders has centered on part of the "Gold's Gym" building on Washington.



Grocers have very thin margins of profit. Most grocers are watching the progress of City Grocers while they discuss lease terms with building owners. At some point soon, the expected revenue and cost of leasing lines will cross."



I guess time will tell.

I wonder what the true distribution of Centre shoppers' locales was. If Illinoisans supported the Centre in any significant proportion, it might be worth "marketing" downtown retail, including a Borders, to Illinois (via billboards?).



I should add that there are probably more people than just we on this message board who would go downtown for a Borders. I just went to the Brentwood Borders tonight. If downtown ever got one (a real, multi-level, full-fledged store, that is), I would never so much as look at the Brentwood location again.



Call it a childish grudge, but I try to keep my money in the City and I think many other City residents would do the same--including ones like me who live at least five miles from downtown.

Great discussion of urban retail in general. Some thoughts I had...



If you have Google Earth, check out downtown Chicago and have it display grocery stores. Looks like there are about five. Then zoom all the way in on the Whole Foods. There are about six 20-30 story (maybe more) residential high rises in the blocks immediately surrounding that site. I just don't see a need for another grocery store downtown at this point.



Doing research for my thesis, I found that surprisingly the city has more grocery store square footage per square mile than the county. The need for grocery stores isn't downtown, it is in North St. Louis. There is only one major grocery store north of Delmar, nine south of Delmar. City Grocers fits the downtown niche perfectly.



Bookstores is a different matter. More than grocery stores I think a Borders attracts downtown workers, so add them to the mix. Plus I don't think you can compare a Borders to an independent store like Left Bank Books. Two totally different experiences. I think it is safe to say a city (especially downtown) Borders wouldn't affect Left Bank's sales one bit. The city really could use a large book store.



A couple things about St. Louis Centre. I think it was open about 6-8 years before Metrolink was up and running. Also the thing that made it such a good mall was that it had new stores that no other malls had at the time, two that come to mind are Sharper Image and Abercrombie & Fitch (much different back then). There was no Galleria back then, the best and newest mall was Chesterfield about 20 miles away. At that point all the other malls were already starting steep declines



By the time St. Louis Centre had Metrolink access it didn't have any exclusive stores and Galleria was going strong. Not much reason anymore to go to the "suburban" mall downtown anymore.

If downtown Indy can support a Border's, and one not in Circle City mall, but actually a large storefront space, then certainly downtown St. Louis can.



I'd imagine their target location would be ideally a ground floor space somewhere along or between Washington and Olive, 7th and 10th. I think west of 10th is too far for most workers and visitors in hotels, while east of 7th is too far for most residents. Staying along or between Washington and Olive adds to the emerging retail about and to the northwest of the Old Post Office. Plus, City Grocers, Macy's as well as all the new home decor businesses could certainly benefit from the added foot traffic.

I suspect another good location would be in whatever SLU and their chosen developer eventually puts at the corner of Lindell and Grand.



That would most likely be a Barnes & Noble, since they have the contract to run the bookstore in the SLU Student Center.

southslider wrote:If downtown Indy can support a Border's, and one not in Circle City mall, but actually a large storefront space, then certainly downtown St. Louis can.

Everything I've heard about Indianapolis points to a city where the downtown is seen as the city's prime destination for both retail and entertainment. I have also heard that Indianapolis lacks solid definitions of "neighborhoods" in the sense that St. Louis does.



St. Louis has many neighborhoods and areas with diverse retail and restauarant options, and I think that our downtown is viewed as only one of those neighborhoods, not THE neighborhood to shop and eat. Maybe that's changing. Maybe I'm totally wrong about Indy (considering I've never been there and am relying on second hand anecdotes from those who have been there).



It's tough to truly compare St. Louis's retail climate with any other city's without a very intimate knowlede of such things as the political/racial environment of both cities, I'm sure. Also, as I was saying before, population density, income density, and image go a long way. St. Louis is only starting to beef up all three.

About 8 years ago I worked part time at a clothing store in St. Louis Centre. It was the second highest grossing store in St. Louis for our particular chain (after the Galleria). But because of shoplifting and problems getting staff to work there it was closed or so we were led to believe.

A city's downtown should be a place you never have to leave to do any daily activity. That's why people in other major cities can get by without owning a car. If I could I'd spend all my money downtown. Imagine going to work, going to lunch, stopping by borders, the grocery store, and catching a movie before going home. Now imagine doing all of that on foot in downtown St. Louis.

SoulardD wrote:A city's downtown should be a place you never have to leave to do any daily activity. That's why people in other major cities can get by without owning a car. If I could I'd spend all my money downtown. Imagine going to work, going to lunch, stopping by borders, the grocery store, and catching a movie before going home. Now imagine doing all of that on foot in downtown St. Louis.

That would be fantastic. Still, I wonder about the legitimacy of focusing all efforts on bringing these retailers to downtown when other neighborhoods suffer from massive underservice by retail.



Once the Metrolink runs through North and South City, I think we'd be better off trying to get chain stores to locate downtown rather than in individual neighborhoods, depending upon the circumstances.

I think we definitely need a mix of chain and locally-owned stores. I'm guessing that we'll see our fair share of chain places in Ballpark Village, but I think that downtown would really benefit from having a few major retailers such as Borders, Virgin, etc. serving as "anchors" for lack of a better word, with interesting/unique local stores filling in the gaps.



We definitely need more retail on the south side as well. I'm sick of driving to Crestwood and Brentwood for shopping.

Recently, I was looking for furniture and appliances, and so I thought I'd likely have to buy out in the County. Well, after some comparative shopping, I actually bought my appliances in the City; the furniture purchase temporarily on hold.



Seeking new stainless steel appliances for our kitchen remodeling, my partner and I checked out all the usual chains, including American, Best Buy, Circuit City, Home Depot and Lowe's. And guess what? It turned out that what we wanted was cheapest at Slyman Brothers on Hampton. The overhead microwave was already on sale below any competitor and they matched competitors on the range. Plus, unlike the others, delivery, hook-up and hauling were all free. The sales tax difference between say the City and Hazelwood or Fenton was about $10 more for our total purchase, but we likely spent much more than that on gas to comparatively shop.



So, next time, think of City locations. Besides Southwest City, evidently there is a HUB Furniture and Appliance store in Soulard. And of course, there are all the new home decor stores Downtown, as well as a new place (Grove Furnishings?) in Tower Grove South on Morganford.



And if you still must absolutely buy at a chain, instead of the many City independents, try shopping the City locations of Home Depot, Target or even Radio Shack for your furniture, appliances and electronics.

Unless you're the most frugal or particular of shoppers, there's not too much "justification" for leaving the City when we have a Target and Home Depot. I definitely agree, southslider.