Predicting the next Shaw neighborhood

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Which neighborhood will undergo a Shaw like transformation in the next decade?

West End/Visitation Park
13%
2
Academy/Fountain Park/Lewis Place
20%
3
Hyde Park/Old North
No votes
0
Carondalet/Patch
7%
1
Mckinley Heights/Fox Park
33%
5
Dutchtown
7%
1
Bot Heights/Tiffany
20%
3

The predicting the Grove poll question got me thinking about this and I think it may be a more interesting question to ask. Which is the next neighborhood with a strong housing stock, and good access to amenities that will see serious re-investment. I know Shaw didn't bottom out , or anything close to that, but it did have a swoon in the 80s-2000s especially on the less prominent streets. Now there are lots of young professionals moving in and heck St. Margaret's is expanding which I think makes it an outlier for schools in the city.

Some of the optins are combined because, frankly, we have too many neighborhoods.
Do any of those neighborhoods have an institutional anchor?
Carondelet has Carondelet Park as a fairly important park anchor and an entertainment district surrounding the Ivory Triangle anchored by the Ivory Theatre now. Also arguably the Sisters of St. Joseph of Carondelet. There's nothing quite as big as a Wash U. or a Botanical Garden, but there are plenty of smaller anchors. Churches, schools, parks, and so forth. Bevo/Dutchtown maybe less so than Carondelet/Patch. But even Bevo/Dutchtown has some fairly obvious ones. Bevo Mill. Long School. Oak Hill School. A decent strip of commercial along Meramec. St. Anthony of Padua. Some of it will depend on how tightly you want to draw your arbitrary. They're certainly smaller anchors. Not the biggest, but there's only so many really big ones to go around.
(And much the same could be said of some northside neighborhoods. Fairground Park has the potential to be a very solid anchor, for instance.)
I think the N/S metrolink will have a lot to do with which neighborhoods become hot. I think the southern route along Jefferson will fill in very quickly after construction. Most of the historic hosing stock is still there and easy transit access to the Cherokee and Chippewa corridors will make this the hottest spot of 2030s.

The north side will take a lot longer but depending on the route I see Old North and parts of Hyde Park roaring back, but I don't see them having the same vibe as Shaw. Maybe for like Lafayette Square/Soulard. The neighborhoods immediately south and west of Fairgrounds Park will likely turn around eventually as well.

In the short term without the N/S metrolink I see it being Fox Park/McKinley Heights
The most obvious answer IMO is Botanical Heights. Tons of rebuilds from UIC, similar institutional support.
GoHarvOrGoHome wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 9:34 pm
I think the N/S metrolink will have a lot to do with which neighborhoods become hot. I think the southern route along Jefferson will fill in very quickly after construction. Most of the historic hosing stock is still there and easy transit access to the Cherokee and Chippewa corridors will make this the hottest spot of 2030s.

The north side will take a lot longer but depending on the route I see Old North and parts of Hyde Park roaring back, but I don't see them having the same vibe as Shaw. Maybe for like Lafayette Square/Soulard. The neighborhoods immediately south and west of Fairgrounds Park will likely turn around eventually as well.

In the short term without the N/S metrolink I see it being Fox Park/McKinley Heights
I doubt we will ever see the full N/S line. Really hoping the first phase starts soon. I think that would make McKinley and Fox the next real hotspots.
mjbais1489 wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 9:02 am
The most obvious answer IMO is Botanical Heights. Tons of rebuilds from UIC, similar institutional support.
I was torn whether or not to include Bot heights. I don't view mcree town's rebirth as a being similar to shaw because its success is so closely lnked to the Grove, imo.

That said one could argue that Shaw's rennaissance was initiated by the explosions of the south grand ocrridor. Therefore I will alter the poll.

Edit: I did not realize that updating the poll would wipe everyone's responses. Thank you to those who responded so far if you don't mind re-voting I would appreciate it.
The timeline for light rail implementation is minimal 7 years given ideal conditions like Federal funding. This means start of service in 2025 at the very earliest on Northside-Southside MetroLink. Whoever buys housing in anticipation of such a line must be willing to wait upwards of a decade from now to sell. Sadly the Mayor is committed to demolition of 1/3 of vacant buildings meaning South City will likely lose a significant portion of housing stock. It's hard to say what neighborhood is the next "it" one.

In reality we need many neighborhoods to rebound simultaneously to counteract the depopulation trend. Regional scale projects like the N-S light rail and Chouteau Greenway need complimentary smaller projects and policies to result in a rebound to wide scale prosperity. The state's growth curve of potential revenue is dependent upon the tax base of St. Louis City and Kansas City to recover. The suburban tax base expands now at the demise of other suburban areas (Wentzville vs North County bedroom communities) and neither comprise the core area of the regional economic engine (Chesterfield to Downtown). Housing prices provide the clearest evidence of this shift.

In short, St. Louis City matters to the state economic engine but will need a variety of projects across the spectrum to revive, to be desirable to household location choice.
The neighborhoods north of Delmar immediately adjacent to the Loop and the CWE will get hot fast. The housing stock is excellent, it isn't carved up by railroads, topography, and highways, and it's close to WashU, hospitals, CORTEX, and SLU. Total no brainer. 5 years max before it completely explodes.
onecity wrote: The neighborhoods north of Delmar immediately adjacent to the Loop and the CWE will get hot fast. The housing stock is excellent, it isn't carved up by railroads, topography, and highways, and it's close to WashU, hospitals, CORTEX, and SLU. Total no brainer. 5 years max before it completely explodes.
Along with the strengths you mention, Wash. U.'s recent expansion of its Live Near Your Work Plan (an employee housing assistance program) to Fountain Park, Vandeventer, Lewis Place, Academy and Visitation Park should help drive some interest in the north side of Delmar neighborhoods.

It's not a huge program - providing subsidies for 91 properties in 10 years - but every little bit helps.

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